Seventeenth Edition -

Good morning, everyone! Today is the Seventeenth Edition of the "Harsh Reality" newsletter! If you're new here, welcome to the fight. If you want to see previous editions of the newsletter they'll be available at the link below. And if you want to join us on our social media platforms click on those links as well. Our intent is to always provide you more value than we receive so thank you for being here and enjoy the show.

Weekly Dose of "Harsh Reality"

Following the “reelection” of Erdogan, the Turkish Lira plummeted to a new record low.

Harsh Reality - To date, the Turkish Lira has lost 60% of its value.. Let that sink in for a moment.. If you had your entire net worth in the Turkish Lira last year, your buying power would have been cut by 60% against the dollar.. That is insane when you think about the impact that has on Turkish citizens.

I’ve travelled all over the world in my short time on this rock. One thing that I have realized having grown up in the U.S. is that we all think that the U.S. lives in a bubble.. The “that can’t happen here” mentality is very strong in our culture. In reality, not only can something similar happen to the U.S. economy, it’s already happening.. We don’t realize it, but you don’t wake up one day in the situation Turkey is in.. It’s a slow steady march towards a cliff over a number of years.

Last year, inflation peaked in Turkey at 86%. 86%!!! Even worse, they reelected the guy in charge who led them to that situation! I have no idea WTF they’re thinking; but that’s what they’re going with..

As we stated in a previous edition, the cost to service the federal debt liability is going to exceed the value of the DOD budget either next year, or the year after.. Common sense would lead us to believe that the smart move would be to reduce our debt liability so we can control how much we spend on the debt service every year.. Unfortunately, that’s not how we roll.

Just last week the U.S. locked in spending at the current level for the next two years. That agreement was made while on the brink of a U.S. debt default that could have been massively impactful to our economy.

Yep.. Exactly. And we’re still borrowing more and more money every year.. The government running an annual budget deficit that’s over $1T.. Given that we’re just shy of $32T in debt, a 600% increase since the year 2000, this is unsustainable. One video I found over fourteen years ago, explained our budget in simple to understand terms. Check it out👇

Great explanation right..? Unfortunately, that’s not representative of our overall debt. Our national debt would actually fill ten tables with pennies, and a new one would be added every single year given our current spending levels. As stated earlier, we’re running towards that cliff and who knows when we’ll fall of the edge.

Republican response - Negotiate hard to maintain current spending levels.

Democrat response - Spend more and tax everyone more.

Outcome - Sky high inflation and the devaluation of the dollar.

Shit That Matters

The Fed Prepares For New Inflation Data & FOMC Meeting.. - The Federal Reserve will hold their FOMC meeting this coming week. They will also receive the May inflation numbers on Tuesday before debating whether or not to raise the Federal Funds Rate.

Harsh Reality - The Fed is in a horrible position here. The CME Fedwatch Tool is showing a 70% likelihood of a pause in rate hikes in June. The reason that this is bad news for the Fed is that they will likely have to resume rate increases in July or September. This will cause a huge market knee-jerk because most credit heavy industries have been betting on rate reductions in the last quarter of 2023. We here at Harsh Reality view that as highly unlikely.

FBI Director To Be Held In Contempt of Congress - After flip-flopping several times over the last month the Director of the FBI has refused to allow a subpoenaed document to be reviewed by the House Oversight Committee. The document is a statement from a credible and confidential FBI source stating that Joe Biden received a $5M bribe for political influence.

Harsh Reality - The weaponization of the DOJ continues. If you have or have held a security clearance, then you know what the director is doing is purely political and is meant to protect Joe Biden. There is not a single document or file in control of the FBI that congress cannot view, especially in an oversight function. The document can be viewed in a controlled area and not released to anyone; but the oversight committee has every right to view confidential documents. Given that this document is actually unclassified, it’s just more insight on the gamesmanship occurring.

Regarding the contempt charge, this is a waste of time. The committee will pass the contempt charge along to the Attorney General (Biden Appointee) and it will be thrown in the trash. As we said, the weaponization of the DOJ continues.

Russo-Ukrainian War - Offensive Under Way - This week has been a very busy week for both sides of the conflict. The Ukrainian counter-offensive operation is underway and the Russians are holding.

Harsh Reality - The Russians are inflicting massive casualties on the Ukrainians and even blew up a dam to prevent the Ukrainians from conducting an amphibious crossing of the Dnieper River.

On the Ukrainian side, units have begun the widely touted counter-offensive along the line of contact. The most intense fighting has occurred exactly where we projected near Orikhiv, and the Ukrainian forces involved have been brutally repelled. One video from open source intel groups showed advanced armored vehicles and tanks (provided by the US and UK) being decimated by Russian anti-tank weapons systems from defensive positions. It is also being reported that well over 3,000 Ukrainians soldiers have been killed in this operation in the last 72 hours..

Unfortunately the previous video shows a complete breakdown in tactics, control, spacing, etc. We here at Harsh Reality hope this isn’t going to become a pattern in the future of this counter-offensive operation. More to follow on this as the situation develops.

SEC Files Lawsuits Against Binance & Coinbase - The SEC has asserted that Binance and Coinbase have been acting as illegal securities trading platforms for several years..

Harsh Reality - Weaponization continues.. The SEC is more interested in setting the battlefield for the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) that’s on the horizon. These tokens are being touted as a direct competitor to Bitcoin; but in reality it’s just another way for the government to assert control.

Bitcoin, as a rule, cannot be controlled, by any person or organization. It’s built into the very design of the blockchain and cannot be manipulated. CBDC, however, is controlled by the Fed. “No big deal” you say? Imagine the government being able to suspend your access to your own money for something you posted no social media. Crazy right? Well that’s exactly what this leads to. Don’t believe me? This is already a reality in China and a CBDC is exactly how they implemented it.

Another.. Trump Indictment - The former President posted to his Truth Social account that he’s being indicted for mishandling classified documents.

Harsh Reality - Our country is beginning to look a lot like a banana republic these days.. I think anyone who can rise above the politics of the situation can see an unequal application of the law playing out. Joe Biden with illegal docs in his garage.. Silence. Hillary Clinton with her illegal email server.. “No reasonable prosecutor blah blah blah…” If Lady Justice cannot remain blind and impartial, our justice system is broken and lawlessness will ensue.

Air Quality Alerts In United States - Wildfires in Canada have caused serious air quality concerns over smoke overcoming several states in the U.S.

Harsh Reality - “No bid deal, Eh?” - Justin Trudeau

It is a big deal.. Trudeau took the opportunity to preach to people about global warming and environmental BS, while completely dismissing any culpability of forest maintenance in the situation (liberal talking point). No surprise here.. Reminds me of Biden to be honest.

For those concerned, you can find a map of the affected areas, including air quality status here.

Weekly Market Recap

Shit That Doesn't Matter

Andrew Tate Gave His First Interview To The BBC - The BBC was given a huge opportunity to conduct the first interview of Andrew Tate after his release from Romanian incarceration.

Harsh Reality - The BBC completely f*cked this up with liberal rhetoric. Talk about some foolish questions to ask a man that you could argue has been targeted by “the matrix.” Whether you like the man or not, support his message or not, I think we can all agree that big government forces conspired to take this dude down. The BBC completely disregarded that aspect of the story and went straight to liberal rhetoric about his messaging. You can find their interview all over the interwebs; but above is the uncut response that Andrew Tate gave via Twitter.

NHL Stanley Cup Finals - The Florida Panthers & the Vegas Golden Knights are battling it out over the Stanley Cup in a best of seven match-up.

Harsh Reality - Vegas currently leads the series 2 - 1; and the next game airs tonight at 7pm CST.

The NBA Championship.. - The Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat are head to head to decide the outcome of the NBA finals.

Harsh Reality - The Nuggets currently lead the Heat 3 - 1; and the next game airs June 12th, at 7:30pm CST.

That's A Wrap!

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