Sixteenth Edition

Good morning, everyone! Today is the Sixteenth Edition of the "Harsh Reality" newsletter! If you're new here, welcome to the fight. If you want to see previous editions of the newsletter they'll be available at the link below. And if you want to join us on our social media platforms click on those links as well. Our intent is to always provide you more value than we receive so thank you for being here and enjoy the show.

Weekly Dose of "Harsh Reality"

More than 50% of the U.S. population is on some kind of entitlement program. We crossed this point of no return in 2014 when obamacare went into effect and it’s only gotten worse ever since.

Harsh Reality - Let that sink in for a moment.. Half of the adults you see when you leave your home are receiving some kind of payment from the government because they’re “incapable” of providing for themselves.. Some call that the “death spiral.” That’s where you have more consumers than producers in a society and there is no viable way for that society to survive over time. All of this comes in a period of time where it has never been easier in the history of the world, to be successful..

Unfortunately, the idea of a “social safety net” has given way to a lifelong dependency on “free” money. Today we’re going to talk about the mindset that people on these programs adopt and how it affects their future.

At Harsh Reality, we view being “broke” and being “poor” differently. Being broke is simply not having any money at your disposal. Don’t confuse that with being poor. Poor is a mentality. Poor is a lifelong pattern of dependency due to a lack of ambition or willingness to put in the effort to succeed in life. We all know at least one of these people. These are the people who can never hold a job, or they hold one meant for a teenager for years. They want absolutely no responsibility. They are always borrowing money from one line item in the budget, or friends and family, to pay debts or to live. They know more about how to manipulate a government program than they do their own careers, bank accounts, etc.

Those with a significant amount of moral empathy will say that “most of those people can’t help it.” While it is commendable to have empathy for those that are less fortunate, you can’t genuinely believe that 50% of the population falls into that category. See the comedy skit above.. If you have ever been around people on these programs, their speech is not far from what’s portrayed there. Unfortunately, that mentality is crippling to those who adopt it. Here’s some helpful info..

Based on a study from the Brookings Institute, you only need to do three things, in order, to stay out of poverty in life. They are:

• Graduate Highschool

• Do not have a child out of wedlock

• Do not have a child until age 21

I have to say that that’s a pretty damn low bar to get over. The study shows that only 8% of people who accomplish the above, in order, end up in poverty. Inversely, 79% of the people who do not adhere to those three things, end up in poverty.

Add to those three items above, develop some ambition for your future and a willingness to learn. Know that there is a better life in store for you if you’re willing to set goals and work to accomplish them. This isn’t rocket science; but when you’re in a dependency mindset, you feel trapped. You start saying things like, “I can’t get ahead.” "The little man can’t succeed.” These are nothing but excuses that will destroy your future.

We talk a lot about finances in this publication. We only do that because we believe that financial freedom is the foundation for all other freedoms. Afterall, you can’t be inspired to change the world when you can’t pay your rent.. With that, I implore you to get out of the dependency mindset. Go after that promotion you’ve been thinking about. If you don’t like your job, find another one but don’t quit until you find it. Improve your financial IQ and set yourself, and your family up for success. Go back a couple of editions and read the books that Harsh Actual recommended. You can absolutely fix whatever situation you’re in; but you have to be willing to act. We believe in you! Now get to work.

Shit That Matters

The Debt Ceiling Crisis Is Over! Maybe.. - This last week the passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling. The agreement was negotiated by Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy and is now heading for a final vote in the Senate.

Harsh Reality - The “gubment” just locked in COVID spending levels as the new budgetary baseline. Just goes to show you that if they get an inch, they will take a mile.. We here at Harsh Reality are not impressed with this deal. Talking points and agendas be damned; the level of spending (& debt) we’re seeing is absolutely insane. It is likely that in the next year or two, the cost to service the U.S. debt every year will exceed the Department of Defense budget. That my friends, is the definition of unsustainable.

We would also like to note that Janet Yellen’s fire and brimstone predictions have all turned out to be bullsh*t.. As predicted.

Jobs Report Is Fire!🔥🔥🔥- The jobs report for May 2023 came back hot, almost doubling expectations.

Harsh Reality - Unfortunately, unemployment went up more than expected as well.. Yes, we know that doesn’t make sense. The Harsh Reality is that most people have stopped looking for jobs and those people are considered “out of the workforce.” As such, they are not accounted for in the jobs numbers. So the true picture is really much worse than what’s being presented.

This puts the Federal Reserve in a horrible position with the next FOMC meeting coming up next week. Per the CME Fedwatch Tool, the market is expecting (with 75% certainty) a pause in rate hikes. With the hot jobs report, they will either continue increasing this month; or more than likely, they’ll pause in June and start raising again in July. That’s not going to make the markets happy and only time will tell how it all plays out.

FBI Relents To House Oversight Subpoena - The Director of the FBI has confirmed that he will comply with the House Oversight Subpoena for a document regarding a $5M influence bribe paid to Joe Biden.

Harsh Reality - The weaponization of the FBI, NSA, DHS, etc. has got to stop. Anyone with the tiniest bit of intellect knows that there’s significant corruption going on in the FBI. While I’m doubtful anything will come of the document or the House Oversight investigation; preventing the weaponization of these agencies needs to be a top priority.

Russo-Ukrainian War - The Pressure Is Building - This week we’ve seen strikes from both sides hitting “close to home” targets in Kiev and Russia proper.

Harsh Reality - As talk of more offensives on both sides race towards a pinnacle; Kiev and Russia itself have been pounded with missile, drone and air attacks this week.

The Russians have stepped up attacks on the capital city of Kiev using cruise and hypersonic missiles in abundance. We are of the opinion that Russia is looking to score some decapitation strike successes. The Russians will also be striking the ports near Odessa in an attempt to further damage the Ukrainian economy which is already in shambles. This comes as the weather warms up and strikes against power grids become less effective in inflicting pain on the Ukrainian population.

On the Ukrainian side the talking heads are all touting the upcoming major offensive. The back and forth about whether or not its going to happen is getting tiring. It has been delayed and brought back up several times over the past month. Now, it is reportedly immanent and is going to be initiated to the west of Orihkiv, attack direction south. The intent would be to seize Melitopol and potentially cut off the land bridge between Russia proper and Crimea. Given the destruction of the Kerch Straight Bridge that would sever all land based supply lines to Crimea.

All of that is fine and good but Ukraine is either pushing a disinformation campaign, or they’re the worst strategists in history by signaling their future moves. We do not expect the attack to play out as it’s been reported.

Also of note, the Russians are showing a significant build-up in the area to the north of Siversk. Time will tell which side takes the initiative and is ultimately successful.

Afghanistan Attacks Iran - This week the Taliban used American weapons seized after Joe Biden’s horrendous withdrawal to attack Iran. Iran also announced a successful test of their new hypersonic missile.

Harsh Reality - Literally, everyone in the world, except for Pentagon leadership of course, knew this was going to happen. Overnight, the Taliban became one of the largest militaries in the Middle East thanks to the policies and blunders of Joe Biden and his defense cabinet. This will only further destabilize the area at a time when world war is looking more and more likely.

It comes as no surprise that Iran is making advances in their weapon industry. All of the economic pressure has been removed from Iran by Joe Biden. They’re also violating Russian sanctions by trading oil and weapons with them via the Caspian sea. We of course have not responded to this situation. I would not be surprised if an Israeli preemptive strike were to occur if those hypersonic missiles are capable of hitting Israel.

Weekly Market Recap

Shit That Doesn't Matter

Old Man Joe Takes Another Tumble - While attending the graduation at the USAF Academy, Joe Biden faceplanted while trying to “jog” back to his seat.

Harsh Reality - People fall, that’s nothing new. Having said that, Joe Biden falls A LOT.. He also doesn’t seem to be able to string together a coherent statement which is why he isn’t “allowed” to hold press conferences. The attempts by his press team to show him in a younger light (jogging and riding bikes) is comical and isn’t fooling anyone. All in all it’s a sad state of affairs for the United States..

Kohl’s Is Next! - The pressure from the woke executives of the world have caused another national brand to come under fire & boycott. This comes after Kohl’s launched a gay pride merchandise line for babies and toddlers.

Harsh Reality - They deserve everything they get. Bud Light, Target, Kohl’s and whomever else signs on to this madness. You can play these bullsh!t games up to a point; but when you cross the proverbial line, it’s very hard come back.

NHL Stanley Cup Finals - The Florida Panthers & the Vegas Golden Knights will meet in the Stanley Cup Finals in a best of seven match-up.

Harsh Reality - We here at Harsh Reality are indifferent regarding both teams; although it would be cool to see Vegas win given their program’s infancy. Good luck to all.

The NBA Championship.. - The Denver Nuggets lead the Miami Heat 1 game to 0.

Harsh Reality - Lebron lost.. That’s STILL all I care about.

That's A Wrap!

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