Second Edition - Harsh Reality Newsletter

Today is the second edition of the "Harsh Reality" newsletter. If you're new here, welcome to the fight. If you want to see previous editions of the newsletter they'll be available at the link below. Our intent is to always provide more value than we extract so thank you for being here and enjoy the show

Weekly Dose of "Harsh Reality"

Who remembers their parents telling them "your only chance to succeed is to go to college?" After that they would say something like, "then you can get a great job with great benefits, buy a home, and raise a family," etc.  

Harsh Reality - What your parents didn't tell you, or likely didn't know themselves, is that you would be betting your financial future on a path that is statistically unlikely to be successful. Like just as bad as betting your financial future on the hard 6 or 8 in craps! So before we get into this, here's a huge disclaimer! Quality education is one of the most important things one can obtain in their life; and everyone should be constantly learning and adapting. However, our college education system has turned into a predatory organization, masquerading as an institution of higher learning. Their victims.. Young and impressionable kids that simply want to learn a skill and go on to succeed in life. In addition, the education they provide, in my humble opinion, is substandard at best and astronomically overpriced. If you doubt that, go speak to a teen going through college and gauge whether or not they're prepared for a career. More on that later. Today we'll take a look at some scary statistics to get your brain going:

So to break it all down Barney-style, you only have a 9% chance of completing college and working in your field of study. On a happier note, you do have a 27% chance of completing college and gaining employment that requires "a college degree" in no specific field. So, for all of you upcoming students, that means there's a 91% probability that your college plans will result in a degree that will do nothing but collect dust on a shelf; and a 27% probability that your degree will only help get you through the front door to compete for a job you "need" a lot more than you "want." In reality, you're statistically more likely to become a Navy SEAL than to put that bachelor's degree in Renaissance Art to good use.. Granted, the numbers for solid STEM fields are probably much better, but these are the overall statistics.

Now let's imagine what that means for the 91% of people who took out NON-BANKRUPTABLE student loans banking on a specific industry-related salary to justify them..  We'll jump down that rabbit-hold next week.

Shit That Matters

Tukey & Syria Earthquake - A 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck a border area between Turkey and Syria in the wee hours of 6 February. Almost a dozen aftershocks, mostly between 5 and 6 magnitudes, were reported through the morning hours later that same day.  Several buildings not constructed to withstand earthquakes subsequently collapsed in the vicinity of ground zero. The death toll continues to rise but at the time of this writing it has surpassed 24,000 victims in Turkey and Syria. One architect has been arrested by Turkish authorities following the collapse of a complex he designed. He was caught in the Istanbul airport apparently attempting to flee to Montenegro.   

Harsh Reality - Any loss of life is a shame; but the scale of this event is simply devastating. Children lost parents, parents lost children, and dedicated husbands and wives have lost their significant others on a mass scale. The thought of "what could have been" is particularly poignant, as among the thousands lost, there may have been individuals who held the cure for cancer in their minds, or who would have a raised a child destined to solve world hunger. All those lost were completely innocent, and their potential contributions to society have been lost forever, which makes the devastation even worse.  Hopefully this helps put the true cost of this tragedy into perspective for our readers.

Russo-Ukrainian War - This week Russia has continued to mass its forces for what is likely to be a large renewed offensive on the Ukrainian's eastern front. Ongoing heavy fighting has been reported near the towns of Kreminna and Bakhmut. (Consolidated from various open source intelligence sources) 

Harsh Reality - The reported buildup of Russian personnel and equipment is a cause for concern for the Ukrainians. Reconnaissance in force efforts are underway by the Russians, potentially scouting for the best location to launch their attack. According to available open-source intelligence, the main force is believed (Wild ass guess) to be preparing for a north and western attack direction toward the town of Siversk; although it is possible that the attack could come from anywhere along the line of contact stretching from Melitopol in the south to Lysychansk in the north. Unverified reports suggest that the Russian force construct is at the following levels:

• 300,000 Soldiers (This includes volunteer, conscripted and Wagner forces)

• 200,000 Soldiers in Strategic Reserve (Currently mobilizing to the staging area)

• 1,000 Main Battle Tanks (Various Nomenclatures)

• 800-1,000 Main Battle Tanks in Strategic Reserve

• 4,000 Armored Fighting Vehicles/Personnel Carriers (Various Nomenclatures)

• 2,000 Artillery Pieces (152mm Variant)

• 800+ Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)

Remember the 300 tanks we spoke of last week..?  Disconcerting, but definitely don't count the Ukrainians out. They didn't stand a chance on paper at the beginning of this war; but look at where they are now. "Slava Ukraine!"

Chinese Spy Balloon - The U.S. shot down the Chinese surveillance balloon it observed for several days after it exited the airspace over the Carolinas. Various military agencies are said to be assisting with the recovery of the craft from U.S. Territorial waters in the Atlantic Ocean.

Harsh Reality - As is often the case in the media, this has become highly politicized. Some on the left are blindly defending Biden, foolishly claiming that the balloon posed no greater threat than the constantly orbiting Chinese surveillance satellites. Talking heads on the right are accusing the administration of gross negligence, suggesting that the administration made the decision to shoot down the balloon only after it completed its mission to traverse the U.S. and collect its targeted intel. This, they argue, raises questions about the level of influence exerted over Biden from the CCP. Unfortunately, what seems to be missing from both sides is the conversation about the following issues, which are what the media should truly be focusing on:

• China is watching the partisan and political reactions to all of this and will use it to create division and confusion in the future.  

  • This mirrors the tactics used by Russia during the 2014 invasion of Crimea. The Russian military removed their flags and identifying markings, and pretended to be local separatists, not a Russian invasion force. This created confusion and paralysis in the media and foreign governments, who struggled to form a cohesive response to the invasion. (Great job, idiots!)

• This is deliberate military probing of our air defense network.

  • Four balloon incidents in as many years, three previously unreported by the intelligence community, have led to four successful breaches in our sovereign airspace by China. Three from the southern approach, and this latest from the north.

  • China is suspected of using this intelligence during the test of their "hypersonic glide vehicle" (Think maneuverable spaceship carrying a nuke) on 27 July 2021. This glide vehicle reportedly followed a flight path across Antarctica that circumvented the majority of our early warning and defense systems. This has been confirmed by military sources who also acknowledged that our defenses would be unable to repel a concerted attack of this nature.

On Friday, the Pentagon confirmed that a "high altitude flying object" was shot down over Alaska.  Other than stating that it was the size of a small car, there were no other details given.  We'll keep everyone updated on this situation via our social media channels & groups.  

Weekly Market Recap

Chat GPT - OpenAI and Microsoft have integrated the ChatGPT's bot into their Bing search engine. This is a direct challenge to Google's domination of the search engine space and is sure to cause some fireworks. 

Harsh Reality - Google got caught flatfooted on the launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT. They will likely recover; but Microsoft definitely has the initiative. 

Since the launch ChatGPT has seen huge success. So much so that its rarely available due to the 100+ million users constantly crashing their site. In a panic, Google rushed to launch their own chat bot, Bard, in response. Unfortunately for them, Bard responded to it's first question incorrectly at the Google launch event, and was then publicly corrected by Astrophysicist Grant Tremblay on Twitter. This small mistake by Google sent shockwaves through the market and cause a $100B sell-off of Alphabet (Google's parent company) stock shortly thereafter. (Way to go, Grant..)

Shit That Doesn't Matter

State of the Union Address - Joe Biden delivered the second State of the Union address of his administration on 7 Feb 2023.

Harsh Reality - Pinocchios abound..  Honestly, these speeches have become nothing more than opportunities for politicians on both sides to twist the truth and blame everyone but themselves for the tough times we're facing. This year, Republicans heckled Biden as he spoke about social security; which is about as childish as Pelosi ripping up Trump's speech a few years ago, or "the squad" dressing in all white. It serves no purpose but to detract from the dignity and gravity of the occasion and our elected officials should be better than that.

Superbowl LVII - Super Bowl LVII (57) is scheduled for 6:30 PM EST, Sunday evening (12 Feb 2023).  Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles will face off against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.  

Harsh Reality - No one really cares much about this game; everyone just wants Mahomes to lose.  Both teams sit at 16-3 and at the time of this writing the Eagles are a slight, 1.5 point favorite to win the World Championship.  As someone who doesn't like either team, I'd like to see the Jalen Hurts Cinderella Story go full circle; so Go Eagles!

Just in case you've been living under a rock, the "Cinderella Story" is reference to Hurts being benched at quarterback during the second half of the 2018 National Championship (2017 season) game between Alabama and Georgia. After grinding out a second string position behind Tua Tagovailoa for the 2018 season, he vindicated himself by leading Alabama to a comeback win over Georgia in the SEC Championship. The following year he transferred to Oklahoma and achieved moderate success before being drafted by the Eagles in 2020. Now he's headed to the Super Bowl LVII. 

Moldovan Collapse - The Prime Minister of Moldova resigned along with her cabinet on 10 Feb 2023. In response, President Maia Sandu nominated Doran Recean as her replacement.

Harsh Reality - Between the economic collapse of Moldova (which was never great to begin with), and the issues caused by the Russian occupied break away region of Transnistria, Moldova is screwed for the foreseeable future. Russian backed separatists in Transnistria are fighting the Moldovan's bid to join the European Union and no one is really paying attention to the situation because of the war in Ukraine. This is actually a "Shit That Matters" story, but since it's getting no international attention nothing is going to happen. Quite a horrible place to find yourself.

That's A Wrap!

Thank you for taking the time to read this edition of "Harsh Reality." Each edition will only get better going forward so if you got value from this content please consider inviting your friends and family to subscribe using the link below. Once we make it to 10,000 subscribers this will transition from a weekly to a daily newsletter and we need your help to get there! Also, hit us on our Facebook page or on Discord to keep the conversation going! We welcome your feedback and discussion!